Vegas Bookies: Big Odds Trump Wins 2020 and Kamala Is the Opponent Loser
Often, the betting odds of gamblers on politics are more accurate than the polls, and right now, those odds say Trump beats the definite Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris.
Although there are now twelve Democrats that have declared candidacy to run against Donald Trump in 2020, the nation’s gambling gurus are still heavily favoring him for the win in the next election.
That is even after Bernie Sanders entered the race. It did not budge Trumps odds a single bit!
“There were no changes to Sanders’ odds following the announcement. We had it as a foregone conclusion that he will be in the Democratic mix,” sportsbook manager at BetOnline.ag, Dave Mason said.
But Bernie did enter the Democrat primary already ahead of most of his challengers.
In the latest batch of odds, released just after Bernie’s announcement, Trump is the overwhelming 3-2 favorite for reelection.
On the Democrat side, Kamala Harris has 8/1 odds. Followed by Beto O’Rourke 10/1, Joe Biden 12/1 and Bernie Sanders 14/1.
At 40/1, Hillary Clinton seems to have no chance!
At least so writes the Examiner’s Washington Secrets columnist Paul Bedard, who spoke with Mason.
Trump’s odds of re-election haven’t changed. In August, for example, BetOnline.ag had him at the very same 3-2.
It should be noted that the generic Democrat vs. Republican slightly favors the Democrat. So a bigger payout on Republican if you’re betting. Still, after two years of rough polling for Trump, it’s a remarkably resilient showing.
Here is the full list of odds as they appear on the betting sheet: (Who are some of these people and WHY would anyone bet on them?
Donald Trump 3/2
Kamala Harris 8/1
Beto O’Rourke 10/1
Joe Biden 12/1
Bernie Sanders 14/1
Amy Klobuchar 14/1
Elizabeth Warren 25/1
Cory Booker 25/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 25/1
Michelle Obama 25/1
Sherrod Brown 25/1
Mike Pence 33/1
Michael Bloomberg 33/1 Tulsi Gabbard 33/1 Hillary Clinton 40/1 Oprah Winfrey 50/1 Nikki Haley 50/1 Julian Castro 50/1 John Hickenlooper 50/1 Paul Ryan 66/1 Ben Shapiro 66/1 Tom Wolf 66/1 Orrin Hatch 66/1 John Kasich 66/1
Howard Schultz 66/1 Ro Khanna 66/1 Nancy Pelosi 66/1 Steve Bullock 66/1 Pete Buttigieg 66/1 Dwayne The Rock Johnson 80/1 Jamie Dimon 100/1 Mark Cuban 100/1 Jon Stewart 100/1 Caroline Kennedy 100/1 Bob Iger 100/1 George Clooney 100/1 Leonardo DiCaprio 100/1 Ivanka Trump 100/1 Rand Paul 100/1
Terry McAuliffe 100/1 Will Smith 100/1 Gavin Newsom 100/1 Joe Rogan 100/1 Jay Inslee 100/1 John Delaney 100/1 Bill de Blasio 100/1 Eric Swalwell 100/1 Seth Moulton 100/1 John Kerry 100/1 Eric Holder 100/1 Andrew Yang 100/1 Mark Zuckerberg 150/1
Clay Travis 150/1 Ted Cruz 150/1 Marco Rubio 150/1 Stephen Colbert 150/1 Bill Gates 150/1 Steve Bannon 150/1 Tim Ryan 150/1 Marianne Williamson 150/1 LaVar Ball 250/1
Of course, it is early and odds change, and are not always correct. The odds-makers got it wrong before election night 2016. But they were willing to call Trump the favorite earlier than CNN or any other news channel was willing to declare things for “The Donald”.
Just days before the first presidential debate, Las Vegas odds makers were betting markets drastically favor Clinton to win. They give Democratic nominee a 72%-odds of becoming president, according to Bovada Sportsbook, with Trump at 28% odds to win.
It will be an interesting year. I give Bernie the Democrat primary odds.
I see Bernie as the 2011 Republican Mitt Romney. Romney held steady that year starting at 20% and held steady through most of the primary, as the other candidates fought it out. All of the other candidates rose and fell, one at a time.
He held just enough, and gained just enough as others dropped out, to stay basically on top. When it was all said and done, there were not enough votes to beat him. Note the chart:
Bernie, out of all declared, is the only Democrat candidate with a built in supply of support. He came close to beating Hillary, and might have sans SuperDelegates. (Important to note that the DNC has severely changed the SuperDelegate equation since.)
His support will remain steady. He is already very vetted within the Democrat voters. He already has his network put together. This is not his first rodeo. He has learned from a lot of mistakes.
11 other candidates, and possibly more, will split the primary voter base. I believe Bernie can start with much more than Mitt’s 20. Maybe 30 or even more. That makes it very tough for the other candidates.
Right now, Biden is not in the race. While he is currently polling the best, it is clear that not fully in his heart to to run. If he does, it could slightly change the dynamic.
Bernie is polling double above his next opponent, Kamala Harris. His fundraising, both in dollars, and number of donations, squashed Harris this last weekend.
I expect to see Bernie begin to climb, and take just enough to frustrate everyone else.
But we will see!