Pelosi Desperate: Democrats Now Face Significant 2018 Congressional Losses
Last year, many believed that the Democrats would take back both sides of congress this November, but the tides have significantly turned and the economy has Nancy Pelosi at her wits end.
For most of last year, Democrats enjoyed a nearly double-digit lead of 15 points in the generic 2018 congressional ballot.
That has slipped to 2 points in favor of the Republicans and due to rising support of the GOP tax cuts and there effect, that is still rising. It’s the economy stupid! The law provided at least a modest tax cut to 80 percent of American households.
Congressional Republicans also have a 9-point advantage on handling jobs, a 6-point lead on dealing with immigration and a 19-point lead on handling national security. The Democratic advantage on health care has dwindled to just 4 percentage points, down from double digits last year.
But that is not all!
25 Senate seats currently held by Democrats or independents caucusing with them are up for election in 2018 — more than half of the Democratic caucus. Even more significantly, 10 of those seats are in states that voted for Trump in 2016. Conversely, just eight Republican seats are up for election with only one in a state that went for Hillary Clinton.
30 states went for Trump in 2016, meaning the GOP would just need to nab both senators from those states in order to attain a super-majority.
This is not unthinkable in today’s hyperpartisan, straight-ticket environment.
With unemployment numbers at a decades long low, the stock market at an all time high, and wages rising, many are looking towards Republicans for the credit.
Isabel Valencia, 34, said she’s seeing about an extra $50 a month from the tax cuts — no small sum for a mother of two earning $25,000 a year in a local pediatrician’s office. Valencia’s husband lost his job recently, so her family moved in with her brother. She didn’t vote in the 2016 elections because she said she doubted that her vote mattered.
“Yes, absolutely, it does encourage me to vote, and, yes, it makes it more likely to vote Republican,” Valencia said, referring to the tax cuts.
In December, only 37 percent of Americans supported the GOP tax bill in the New York Times/SurveyMonkey poll; by January, that figure was 46 percent; by February it was 51.
No wonder Nancy Pelosi is calling the GOP tax bill un-patriotic and discussing lawn mowing!
Other polls showed a similar trend. And the correlation between the tax bill’s rising favorability, and the Democrats’ declining lead, is very clear.
A University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly in February to its second-highest level since 2004. The survey’s director cited consumers’ greater awareness of tax savings as companies start to use the new withholding tables. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index also improved in February to the second-highest level since March 2002.
House Republicans seized on Pelosi’s characterization of the tax law, which she said is only giving “crumbs” back to taxpayers. Democrats from red states believe that was a mistake, but Pelosi continues to use that line.
“The approach has to be more big picture than personal, because you can’t tell people that are getting $200 a month more that that’s not good,” said Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., ranking member on the House Budget Committee. “That’s big money for a lot of people.”
“I would say it differently,” Yarmuth said. “I wouldn’t say a couple thousand dollars a year is ‘crumbs.'”
Not only that, the President has proven he has the ability to win over voters, even including his detractors.
Three in four Americans who tuned in to President Trump’s SOTU address approved of the speech he gave.
— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 31, 2018
Anthony Salvanto who serves as CBS News Elections & Surveys Director, tweeted the night of the SOTU:
SOTU got nearly full approval from Reps and mixed from Dems in our instant poll pic.twitter.com/XujoCK29PA
— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) January 31, 2018
What might be the elephant in the room however, is the refusal of Nancy Pelosi to step down.
There were a number of special elections last year that were stunning losses for the Democrats, that were blamed on Nancy Pelosi from within. Each election used Pelosi as a foil by the Republican candidate.
While House Democrats have pledged to yoke GOP candidates to House Speaker Paul Ryan, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll suggests that Pelosi will be a more effective foil for Republicans than Ryan will be for Democrats.
Voters are split on their perceptions of Ryan: 36 percent view him favorably, and 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
But Pelosi’s numbers are more negative:
Only 28 percent of voters have a favorable impression of her, while nearly half, 49 percent, view her unfavorably.