Only Poll You Can Trust Makes Somebody Squirm

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The #NeverTrump whiners – George Will are you listening? – will likely require either alcohol or defibrillation when they see this poll from Rasmussen.  They’re crying about how Hillary has a “double digit lead”  and screeching that Trump will be the death of the Republican Party.

I have three comments on that.

First, it’s too early to look a poll and draw any conclusions about November.  The only people who are paying attention at the moment are political junkies on both sides of the aisle.  Regular people are worrying about how they’re going to put food on the table.  That said, there is one thing to pay some attention to, and that is direction.  Are the polls moving in a particular direction over time.

Second, with respect to the “death of the Republican Party” I say good riddance.  Not so much to the Party, but to the double-dealing, gutless, “don’t-stand-for-anything-but-reelection” Party leadership.  Are you listening John “Build the Dang Fence” McCain?

Third, Trump is moving in the right direction.  You can forget about July polling because of the convention coverage.  Trump will likely get a big bounce after Cleveland and Hillary will get one after Philadelphia.  With respect to Hillary’s bounce, the Democratic Party Operatives With Bylines wil make sure of it.

Let’s look at today though.  Here’s the latest Rasmussen numbers.

3 Trump 1

Trump is in the lead by four points.  Last week Hillary was ahead by five.  That’s a significant change in direction during a week when Trump got no really positive press and the DPOWB did their best to cover-up Hillary’s legal problems.

Am I buying champagne yet?  No.  But I’m not writing Trump off and I won’t be writing him off in August or September either.

Donald Trump is an interesting phenomenon.  I’m pretty sure he’s going to  do a lot better in real votes than he polls simply because people don’t want to tell pollsters they’re voting for him.  I know a bunch of people who tell me they’re voting for Trump but tell anyone who asks they don’t know or they’re voting for Hillary just tot avoid any possible confrontation.

It’s going to be a long hot summer.

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