This Professor’s Model Has Only Been Wrong Once in 104 Years


Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, has developed a statistical model

16-0227 Model1

No, not that one.  This one.

… that predicts a 97 percent to 99 percent chance that Trump will win the 2016 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination.

Personally, I like the first one better.

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.

If Hillary Clinton goes against Trump, the chance of a President Trump is 97 percent, according to the model. If Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination instead, the chances for a Trump victory jump further, to 99 percent.

If the nominee is not Trump, the model predicts that there is still a 61 percent overall chance that a Republican will win the White House …

We’ll have to see.  I’m old enough to remember the 1960 election that lots of people think Joe Kennedy bought for Jack.  Compared to the modern Democratic operatives, Joe Kennedy was a piker.

We’re certainly in for an interesting summer and fall.


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About Author

Michael Becker is a long time activist and a businessman. He's been involved in the pro-life movement since 1976 and has been counseling addicts and ministering to prison inmates since 1980. Becker is a Curmudgeon. He has decades of experience as an operations executive in turnaround situations and in mortgage banking. He blogs regularly at The Right Curmudgeon, The Minority Report, Wizbang, Unified Patriots and Joe for America. He lives in Phoenix and is almost always armed.


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