This Professor’s Model Has Only Been Wrong Once in 104 Years
Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, has developed a statistical model …
No, not that one. This one.
… that predicts a 97 percent to 99 percent chance that Trump will win the 2016 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination.
Personally, I like the first one better.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.
If Hillary Clinton goes against Trump, the chance of a President Trump is 97 percent, according to the model. If Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination instead, the chances for a Trump victory jump further, to 99 percent.
If the nominee is not Trump, the model predicts that there is still a 61 percent overall chance that a Republican will win the White House …
We’ll have to see. I’m old enough to remember the 1960 election that lots of people think Joe Kennedy bought for Jack. Compared to the modern Democratic operatives, Joe Kennedy was a piker.
We’re certainly in for an interesting summer and fall.