This Professor’s Model Has Only Been Wrong Once in 104 Years

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Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, has developed a statistical model

16-0227 Model1

No, not that one.  This one.

… that predicts a 97 percent to 99 percent chance that Trump will win the 2016 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination.

Personally, I like the first one better.

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.

If Hillary Clinton goes against Trump, the chance of a President Trump is 97 percent, according to the model. If Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination instead, the chances for a Trump victory jump further, to 99 percent.

If the nominee is not Trump, the model predicts that there is still a 61 percent overall chance that a Republican will win the White House …

We’ll have to see.  I’m old enough to remember the 1960 election that lots of people think Joe Kennedy bought for Jack.  Compared to the modern Democratic operatives, Joe Kennedy was a piker.

We’re certainly in for an interesting summer and fall.

 


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