Ted Cruz surges past Dr. Ben Carson into second place in the latest CBS tracking poll.
While Iowa’s Republicans generally feel Trump is ready to be commander-in-chief, Cruz scores even better on this measure, boosted by support from very conservative and Tea Party Iowans who feel he is ready to assume the post. That’s more than say so about Trump, Carson, Rubio and Jeb Bush.
Since last month, Ted Cruz has gained ground — and Ben Carson has lost ground — among some key voting groups in Iowa: evangelicals, Tea Party supporters, those who are very conservative and older voters. And while Trump still leads among some of these groups, it’s Cruz who is ahead among the very conservative, and Trump leads Cruz by just two points among evangelical voters.
Cruz’s move has come directly at the expense of Carson, as nearly one-quarter of his voters switched.
Almost all of each candidates’ own supporters feel he is ready to be commander-in-chief, so these numbers also reflect differences driven heavily by perceptions among non-supporters. But among non-supporters, Cruz still does well. Carson, less so among those not already backing him.
A sizable percentage of GOP primary voters in all three early states (IA, NH, SC) said their decision as to who to support was at least somewhat affected by the Paris attacks.
Republican primary voters are hawkish on confronting ISIS abroad. Significant majorities of Republican primary voters in all three early voting states favor sending U.S. troops to fight ISIS in the Middle East.
Immigration policy has become a deal-breaker in the Republican race: voters say a candidate must agree with them on it in order to earn their vote. This is markedly different from issues like same-sex marriage, on which Republicans are willing to disagree with their candidate, and more similar to handling ISIS. It also greatly outpaces matters of faith and religion, including in Iowa, where Republicans are more willing to compromise. 61% of Iowa GOP voters say their nominee must agree with them on immigration.
The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker for Iowa was conducted from November 15-19th. The sample size was 1555 registered voters. The margin of error is =/-4.5%.
Of those surveyed, 52% were female and 48% were male.
Ages of those surveyed included: 18-29 (18%), 30-44 (17%), 45-54 (41%), and 65+ (24%).
Ethnicity of participants included: (96%) White, (1%) Black, (1%) Hispanic, and (2%) Other.
Educational backgrounds of those surveyed: (42%) High School or less, (36%) Some college, (15%) College grad, and (7%) Post grad.
Some additional questions and responses from the poll:
- Would you say things in this country today are
- Generally headed in the right direction (21%),
- Off on the wrong track (71%)
- Not sure (8%)
- How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential Caucus in Iowa?
- Definitely will vote (59%)
- Probably will vote (13%)
- Maybe will vote (9%)
- Probably will not vote (8%)
- Definitely will not vote (10%)
- Don’t know (1%)
- In 2016 are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential Caucus?
- Democratic (33%)
- Republican (34%)
- Neither (17%)
- Don’t know (16%)
Not sure what the problem is with those who “definitely will not vote”, who “don’t know” or say “neither” when it comes to voting in the IA Caucus on February 1, 2016, but our country is in need of a REAL, Conservative, Christian leader. #WakeUpAmerica “We The People” need to right this country and return it to the shining city upon the hill.
If I may quote Iowa Representative Steve King:
“I believe Ted Cruz is the answer to my prayers: the candidate that God will use to restore the soul of America”.
Written by Nancy Hayes
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