Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire Shows Hillary … What’s the Word?
Oh yeah, “dying.” We’ve been very public about the fact that we believe Hillary will peak on the day she announces. Assuming she announces. It’s all downhill from there.
Today we have a “coffin meet nail” moment for Hillary. Albeit, it’s a small nail, but we wouldn’t want to be on Hillary’s staff today.
You Gov, a lefty polling firm, polled voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. You know, those first two bell-weather states for primary elections. The results don’t look so good for Hillary.
The poll of 400 conducted Jan. 30 to Feb. 5 put Warren ahead of Clinton in Iowa, 31 percent to 24 percent. In New Hampshire, her lead is 30 percent to 27 percent.
The groups cautioned that the poll mostly shows that voters are extremely open to her candidacy rather than her being a Clinton killer.
We don’t know exactly what the margin-of-error is in this poll, but we suspect that with a pool of 400 it’s pretty big. We also haven’t looked at the questions, and those pesky things tend to be what drives the polling results. Let’s be clear about one thing right here. Statistics is neither science or mathematics. It is art. In mathematics a problem has one answer. In statistics, the problem has a data set and virtually ANY answer can be defended. Kind of like common core.
The reason we’re not paying attention to the stuff that we’d be consuming like a medium rare prime rib-eye closer to the election is two-fold. We don’t care about the internals of the poll. We don’t care because all that matters here is the shock value of the numbers.
Hillary Clinton is easily the most well known possible primary candidate for any party. If there is a human alive that doesn’t recognize her face and know her name, they’re either a Zombie or they’ve been in a state induced by serious substance abuse for the past 20 years. She not only has name recognition, she’s got a spouse who is even better known and who, for some reason we’re not even going to try to figure out is apparently beloved by about half the populace. Actually, Hillary’s problem is that she is NOT Bill.
She can pretend she’s got a wonderful record of accomplishment as a pubic figure, first as First Lady, followed by her tenure as a carpetbagging Senator from New York, and finally as a world traveling Secretary of State. Even though any self-respecting person would be embarrassed to admit they held any of those jobs given what she ACTUALLY accomplished in all of them, the major media will give Hillary even more cover than they’re giving our current President.
Hillary is THE ASSUMED candidate. She deserves it. She’s earned it. She’s the best qualified candidate to EVER run for President. George Washington, James Madison and Thomas Jefferson weren’t so qualified. Or so her team and her True Believers will insist to their dying day. She’s been “running” for the past two years on the front page of every major daily newspaper and in the bowels of every 24 hour cable news cycle. Just ask Brian Williams. Oh. Wait on that one.
We said all that to say this. With all of her “momentum” she should dwarf everybody – including and especially Elizabeth Warren. And yet, with Warren insisting she will not run, she’s losing. She’s losing in Iowa, which has a fairly progressive Democratic Party – remember Tom Harkin was their Senator for decades. The Democratic Party in NH is just a small tad to the right of the Party in Massachusetts. That’s because a bunch of Boston Progressives moved to NH to avoid MA taxes.
Down seven in Iowa and three in New Hampshire when she should be up at least 20.
We can’t recall having more fun typing anything than we’re going to have with this. Hillary, it’s gonna be long, long two years. Heh.