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Battle for Control of Congress In 2014: UPDATE


2014 battle for Congress

House GOP have 198 safe seats.
House Democrats have 162 safe seats.
House GOP have a 36 seat advantage over the Democrats in terms of safe seats.
There are 75 seats being contested and for the Democrats to become the majority again they need to win in 56 of these 75 seats. This means they need to win all 26 seats they have a small lead, plus all 17 seats they are tied, plus 13 of the 32 seats that the GOP have a small lead.

Senate GOP have 41 seats safe or not up for grabs.
Senate Democrats have 40 seats safe or not up for grabs.
Senate GOP have a 1 seat advantage over the Democrats in terms of safe seats.
There are 19 seats being contested and for the GOP to become the majority again they need to win in 10 of these 19 seats. This means they have to win all 5 seats they have a small lead plus 5 of the 8 seats they are tied.
For the Democrats to keep a majority they have to win all 6 seats they have a small lead plus 4 of the 8 seats they are tied.

It is obviously a lot closer for the battle to control the US Senate than it is for the battle to control the US House.

Below is a scenario for the GOP to win 5 of the 8 seats they are tied.
McConnell v Grimes

McConnell defeats Grimes in Kentucky

Perdue defeats Nunn in Georgia

Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas

Tillis defeats Hagan in North Carolina
Ernst vs Braley

Ernst defeats Braley in Iowa
Below is the scenario for the Democrats to win 4 of the 8 seats they are tied

Udall defeats Gardner in Colorado

Begich defeats TBD in Alaska
Landrieu vs TBD

Landrieu defeats TBD in Louisiana
Ernst vs Braley

Braley defeats Ernst in Iowa
We may not know the outcome after the general election on November 4, 2014 if Georgia and Louisiana contests are still in play. There is a Libertarian candidate in Georgia for US Senate who could receive enough votes to keep any candidate from receiving 50% of the votes plus 1. If this happens then a runoff is held for the top 2 vote getters on Tuesday January 6, 2015.

There are no party primaries in Louisiana. All candidates from all parties appear on the open primary ballot. If no candidate receives a majority (50% of the vote plus 1) on November 4, 2014, then a runoff is held between the top two vote getters on Saturday December 6, 2014.

There are 33 states electing 36 US Senators in 2014, and 19 of these states have closely contested elections with 100 days before the general election. The projections with respect to which seats are contested can change between now and then. Please get out and vote for the Republican candidate in these 33 states. Our country is never going to be able to get on the right track again if the majority of voters continue to elect Democrats to the US Senate. If you live in one of the 17 states that is not electing a US Senator in 2014, then consider adopting a Republican candidate to donate money and time to make calls to get out the vote. The future of this republic is on the line.

After further considerations we realize a need to emphasize the point that with 41 safe seats it takes winning at least 10 more seats to have a majority. It can be ANY ten.
Check out a hypothetical list of enough winners to put Republicans in control of the US Senate.

  1. Cam Cavasso defeats Brian Schatz in Hawaii
  2. Monica Wehby defeats Jeff Merkley in Oregon
  3. Scott Brown defeats Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire
  4. Shelley Capito defeats Natalie Tennant in West Virginia
  5. Mike McFadden defeats Al Franken in Minnesota
  6. Terri Lynn Land defeats Gary Peters in Michigan
  7. Bill Cassidy defeats Mary Landrieu in Louisiana
  8. Mead Treadwell defeats Mark Begich in Alaska
  9. Steve Daines defeats John Walsh in Montana
  10. David Perdue defeats Michelle Nunn in Georgia
  11. Mike Rounds defeats Rick Weiland in South Dakota

The list is not a list of the most conservative candidates running for one of the 19 contested seats, and the Democrats lose the majority in the US Senate. Harry Reid is no longer Majority Leader. In this hypothetical the Democrats get these 8 of the 19 contested seats.

  1. Alison Lundergan Grimes defeats Mitch McConnell in Kentucky
  2. Travis Childers defeats Thad Cochran in Mississippi
  3. Chad Taylor defeats Pat Roberts in Kansas
  4. Mark Pryor defeats Tom Cotton in Arkansas
  5. Mark Warner defeats Ed Gillespie in Virginia
  6. Kay Hagan defeats Thom Tillis in North Carolina
  7. Bruce Braley defeats Joni Ernst in Iowa
  8. Udall defeats Gardner in Colorado

This hypothetical may seem far-fetched, but this is a way to make the point that when 10 seats are needed ANY 10 will suffice. Another important point is a majority doesn’t usually vote for whichever candidate appears to be afraid to stand on solid ground out of fear. In winning a majority there are three incumbent Republicans defeated as well as another five conservatives. What is most important is that the new Republican Senate majority doesn’t get sleazy and arrogant. It’s important for Ronald Reagan’s eleventh commandment to be followed

Thou shalt not speak ill of any Republican.

Those who are upset about some newly elected Republicans who are not also conservatives need to take to heart what Ronald Reagan said at CPAC in 1977.

And just to set the record straight, let me say this about our friends who are now Republicans but who do not identify themselves as conservatives: I want the record to show that I do not view the new revitalized Republican Party as one based on a principle of exclusion. After all, you do not get to be a majority party by searching for groups you won’t associate or work with. If we truly believe in our principles, we should sit down and talk. Talk with anyone, anywhere, at any time if it means talking about the principles for the Republican Party. Conservatism is not a narrow ideology, nor is it the exclusive property of conservative activists.


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About Author

I am retired after 36 years of being a state of Indiana employee. I enjoy writing and reading conservative blogs.

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