Political Winds of Change in Appalachia

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Sometimes the political winds of change occur so gradually that we don’t even notice them. This is what is occurring in Appalachia. Today there are 28 US House seats representing Appalachia, and Republicans have 26 of them. The 2014 elections could result in Republicans winning every seat. Just 22 years ago there were 27 seats representing Appalachia, and Democrats had 21 of them. The other point to take note of is that almost all of these seats are now safe Republican seats. Real Clear Politics has West Virginia 2nd projected as ‘Leans GOP’. It has Ohio 6th and West Virginia 1st projected as ‘Likely GOP’. One of the two seats held by a Democrat, West Virginia 3rd is projected as ‘Tossup’. Currently the Maryland 6th is projected ‘Safe Democrat’, but look for it to move into being a contested race between freshman incumbent John Delaney and Republican Dan Bongino.

West Virginia and southeast Ohio are the most recent districts where the constituents finally realized they couldn’t vote Democrat just because their parents were Democrats. It’s no longer the same party. They simply are not with the present Democrat party ambitions to control the ownership of guns, to shut down coal mines and coal fired power plants, and to control the health care industry. They don’t want open borders and an influx of guest workers. This region of the country has been ripe for the taking by the Republican Party if only they will embrace conservative principles instead of a US Chamber of Commerce template. The table below provides the details of where things currently stand and a projection for where we can be after the 2014 election.

State-District Member Year Party took seat 2014 Election Winner
GA-14 Tom Graves (R) 2013 (new district) Tom Graves (R)
MD-6 John Delaney (D) 2013 Dan Bongino (R)
KY-6 Andy Barr (R) 2013 Andy Barr (R)
NC-11 Mark Meadows (R) 2013 Mark Meadows (R)
PA-12 Keith Rothfus (R) 2013 Keith Rothfus (R)
AL-5 Mo Brooks (R) 2011 Mo Brooks (R)
OH-6 Bill Johnson (R) 2011 Bill Johnson (R)
SC-5 Mick Mulvaney (R) 2011 Mick Mulvaney (R)
TN-4 Scott DesJarlais (R) 2011 Scott DesJarlais (R)
VA-9 Morgan Griffith (R) 2011 Morgan Griffith (R)
WV-1 David McKinley (R) 2011 David McKinley (R)
KY-4 Thomas Massie (R) 2005 Thomas Massie (R)
PA-18 Tim Murphy (R) 2003 Tim Murphy (R)
WV-2 Shelley Moore Capito (R) 2001 Alex Mooney (R)
AL-4 Robert Aderholt (R) 1997 Robert Aderholt (R)
GA-9 Doug Collins (R) 1995 Doug Collins (R)
NC-5 Virginia Foxx (R) 1995 Virginia Foxx (R)
SC-3 Jeff Duncan (R) 1995 Jeff Duncan (R)
TN-3 Chuck Fleishmann (R) 1995 Chuck Fleishmann (R)
SC-4 Trey Gowdy (R) 1993 Trey Gowdy (R)
VA-6 Bob Goodlatte (R) 1993 Bob Goodlatte (R)
NC-6 Howard Coble (R) 1985 Mark Walker (R)
OH-2 Brad Wenstrup (R) 1983 Brad Wenstrup (R)
WV-3 Nick Rahall (D) 1983 Evan Jenkins (R)
KY-5 Hal Rogers (R) 1953 Hal Rogers (R)
PA-9 Bill Shuster (R) 1939 Art Halvorson (R)
TN-1 Phil Roe (R) 1877 Phil Roe (R)
TN-2 Jimmy Duncan (R) 1873 Jimmy Duncan (R)

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