Betting markets on the US election are at almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. They seem to be pointing to a surprise victory for Donald Trump.
Bookmaker William Hill says 71% of the MONEY so far is being bet on Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65% of the bets by number are going for Donald Trump.
That means a lot more punters are putting the smaller bets on Trump, which is almost exactly the same pattern as we saw in the run up to the Brexit vote. The money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.
Th Independent reports:
The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician.
It comes despite a campaign bedevilled and derailed by ugly accusations of sexual abuse on the part of Trump from a growing list of women, together with his claims that the election is somehow being “rigged”.
William Hill’s spokesman and resident betting expert Graham Sharpe, an industry veteran of 44 years standing, said: “It’s very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.”
“Trump at 4-1 or 11-2 will attract the smaller punters. But I don’t think that is only reason for the number of bets on him, and we have had to cut the odds on Trump three times in the last couple of days. This isn’t over.”
It isn’t over until the fat lady sings and I have not heard any “LaLaLa’s” from the Governor of New Jersey yet.
One thing’s for sure, this election will be the most talked and written about for decades.
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