As a recovering political junkie my New Year resolution is to always question the narratives and premises from the Washington establishment political consultants. It’s too much like filling your head full of mush to accept what they say to be the truth. The political history they offer is revisionist, and their future predictions are based on some faulty premises.
Let’s look at the results of the 2014 election. One premise was that the Democrats had the disadvantage of having to defend 21 senate seats, and the Republicans only had to defend 15. The problem with this premise is that the Republicans had to defend 22 Governor seats, and the Democrats only had to defend 14. The results are that Republicans won big by winning 24 senate seats and 24 Governor seats. They also increased by 30 seats their majority in the US House. Great candidates who run great campaigns are what matter instead of the musings of pundits. The pundits cautioned that Republicans might lose Governor seats in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We won every one of them and picked up seats in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. The pundits also cautioned that Republicans might lose senate seats in Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. The results are a Kentucky win by a margin of 15.5 points, a Kansas win by a margin of 10.8 points, and a Georgia win by a margin of 7.9 points.
For the 2016 election these pundits suggest that Republicans are going to have a lot of trouble winning unless they can win over a majority of independents. This suggestion overlooks the fact that Romney won more independents than Obama in 2012 and yet he lost. The reason for the loss are the millions of conservatives who stayed home in 2012.
The pundits tell us that Washington is broken because the elected are too partisan and polarized, and they are unable and unwilling to reach agreements. The voting results reveal how the elected Republican John Boehner, Democrat Steny Hoyer, Republican Lindsey Graham, and Democrat Chuck Schumer are quite able and willing to vote the same way for funding Obama’s executive actions concerning illegals.
The pundits tell us that Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Mike Lee just aren’t smart enough to understand how Washington works, and they jeopardize the Republican Party from winning elections with their antics. The results of the 2014 elections refute that premise. If Cruz and Lee are putting Republicans in jeopardy, then why were they called on to campaign for Republican senate candidates in Kansas, Alaska, Iowa, and Louisiana?
The pundits approve the Republican leaders saying that House and senate will operate under “regular order.” This involves passing all 12 appropriations bills through the House and the Senate. In the House the same elected who haven’t been able to achieve this feat since 2011 are expected to get it done. Their senate counterpart committee chairman will not include conservatives like Jeff Sessions, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee. To expect them to succeed this goal is akin to expecting different results without changing a thing. Insanity defined.
The examples listed for why one must always question their narrative and premise might seem depressing, but the good encouraging news is that they have been wrong. A lot of times the results turn out better than they predicted.
Happy New Year!
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